BAHH: another AK out of position early in tournament

External Since: Jan 12, 2007 Posts: 2118

On May 9 2008 6:30 AM, Raider Fan wrote:

> On May 9 2008 7:43 AM, FellKnight wrote:
>
> > On May 8 2008 10:57 PM, Old Wolf wrote:
> >
> > > On May 7, 6:05 am, "FellKnight" <jordandevenp... RemoveThis @hotmail.com> wrote:
> > > > > *** FLOP *** [5s 7d 7s]
> > > > > Old Wolf NZ: bets 200
> > > >
> > > > > Continuation bet
> > > >
> > > > So you got called by 2 people preflop, both of whom have position on
you.
> > > > You flopped nothing, but it was a reasonably decent flop for AK. Why
are
> > > > you betting? It is unlikely that you will make a better hand fold, and
> > > > just as unlikely (given your big preflop raise), that you will get
called
> > > > by a worse hand.
> > >
> > > Well, according to Harrington on Hold'em, conditions were
> > > good for a continuation bet: I am the pre-flop aggressor, and
> > > the texture of the flop was such that it was unlikely to have
> > > helped my opponents; so it's reasonable to expect that a
> > > bet will take down the pot sometimes. Betting half the pot
> > > means that if it works at least 1/3 of the time then it is a
> > > profitable bet.
> > >
> > > Three players in the hand is worse than two, of course,
> > > but it's not like I'm betting into 5 people. What is it about
> > > this situation that makes the Harrington advice not apply?
> >
> > Allow me to explain why:
> >
> > Let's assume that you continuation bet, which you point out as a
> > potentially profitable bet, works more than 1/3 of the time... in fact,
> > let's assume that it works fully 1/2 of the time. Against one opponent,
> > your bet will work 1/2 the time, providing a nice, tidy, profit. Against
> > 2 opponents, the bet works against both opponents only 1/2*1/2 = 1/4 of
> > the time. The addition of another opponent has turned a very profitable
> > play into a losing play. Add more opponents, and your chances go down
> > even more (1/8, 1/16, etc). To make this more than a marginal or
> > break-even play, you would need your bet to succeed more than 2/3 of the
> > time against a single opponent, and this is very unlikely to be the case.
> >
> > Fell
> > --
> > "One should always play fairly - when one has the winning cards."
> > Oscar Wilde
>
> That math works for a single hand. If you consistently do a C-bet to
> disguise the strength of your hand, you should do the C-bet regardless of
> the math. A tourney is more than one particular hand. You should,
> however, be willing and able to hit the brakes after that.
>
> Players at my table can take it to the bank that if I raise preflop, I'll
> be betting on the flop. What they don't know is how strong I am when I
> make that bet.

I prefer the advice of both Harrington and Gordon, to C-bet most of the
time, but much less often in a multiway pot without the goods, and to
occasionally check behind a good and a poor hand on the flop (it helps if
the poor hand has some outs, like a gutterball draw).

Fell
--
"One should always play fairly - when one has the winning cards."
Oscar Wilde

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External Since: Jan 12, 2007 Posts: 2118

On May 9 2008 11:19 AM, phlash74 wrote:

> On May 7, 5:53 pm, "FellKnight" <jordandevenp... RemoveThis @hotmail.com> wrote:
> > On May 7 2008 10:43 AM, phlash74 wrote:
> >
> > > 3) Thinks he did the right thing even though he put his stack in as
> > > almost a 3-1 dog going to the river(his best possible case scenario),
> > > and he very easily could have been drawing dead.
> >
> > > Michael
> >
> > 6-1.
> >
> > Fell
> > --
> > "One should always play fairly - when one has the winning cards."
> > Oscar Wilde
> >
> His opponent had an underpair to the board, so a river 5 or J would
> counterfeit his opponent's two pair and allow his Ace kicker to play.
> 12 outs. Of course, he had no way of knowing that, since based on his
> read of a medium pair (I'm assuming he means 88 or 99 here), he'd only
> have 6 outs. I think we both agree that he had no real reason to
> expect even that.
>
> Michael

Yes, I posted a bit hastily. I meant against a reasonable range which
included any pair. Nonetheless, the occasional 44 doesn't make up for the
much more likely 7x or A5 etc.

Fell
--
"One should always play fairly - when one has the winning cards."
Oscar Wilde

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