Bad skill or bad luck ??

> Morph wrote: "you're getting to the point where no one is going to
> want to reply to your posts anymore."
>
> Perhaps you shouldn't.
>
> thanks.

Done. Good luck with things.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy DeleteThis @donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com

_______________________________________________________________________ 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sun, 23 Sep 2007 22:08:09 -0700, "XaQ Morphy"
<a1c5905 DeleteThis @webnntp.invalid> wrote:

>> Did you lose because of bad skill or bad luck??
>
>The problem is alan, because there's more to poker than your hole cards,
>you are asking questions that really can't be answered.
>
>If you want to know the math, figure it out for yourself. Go download
>pokerstove, or go to an online hand calculator like www.twodimes.net and
>plug in the hands to see. In all 3 cases the AK was a favorite, yes. But
>what does that mean? Are you trying to pull some elaborate troll to jump
>to the conclusion that because AK got unlucky that you shouldn't move
>all-in preflop with it? If so, don't bother.
>
>Anyway, you're getting to the point where no one is going to want to reply
>to your posts anymore. What's the point behind these questions?
>
Yeah, I mean God forbid anyone come here actually wanting to learn the
game and improve their game.

Foxtrot
If you think you hate me from what I write here, check out my blog on my MySpace page: http://www.myspace.com/bennettron

If you actually think I'm an okay guy, go ahead and add me as your friend if you are active at MySpace.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 23 2007 10:54 PM, alan wrote:

> Indulge me please, for a minute, and play this "game."
>
> I will give you three hands involving you (player A) and one opponent
> (player B). You (player A) will lose each hand. In each hand both you
> and your opponent are all-in pre flop. In each hand you and your
> opponent have an equal amount of starting chips. Tell me if you lost
> because of bad skill or bad luck.
>
> Hand #1 You have AK offsuit, your opponent has AT offsuit. Your
> opponent wins when there is a T on the board.
>
> Hand #2 You have AK suited, your oppenent has A2 offsuit. Your
> opponent wins when there is a 2 on the board.
>
> Hand #3 You have AK of hearts, and yoru opponent has 6-7 of hearts.
> Your opponent wins when there is a 6 on the board.
>
> Did you lose because of bad skill or bad luck??
>
> thanks.

This is tournament poker, right? You do understand what extremely short
stacks do to NL holdem don't you?

Wayne Vinson
http://cardsharp.org

------- 
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 24, 9:24?am, "Wayne Vinson" <wayne.vin....RemoveThis@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sep 23 2007 10:54 PM, alan wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Indulge me please, for a minute, and play this "game."
>
> > I will give you three hands involving you (player A) and one opponent
> > (player B). You (player A) will lose each hand. In each hand both you
> > and your opponent are all-in pre flop. In each hand you and your
> > opponent have an equal amount of starting chips. Tell me if you lost
> > because of bad skill or bad luck.
>
> > Hand #1 You have AK offsuit, your opponent has AT offsuit. Your
> > opponent wins when there is a T on the board.
>
> > Hand #2 You have AK suited, your oppenent has A2 offsuit. Your
> > opponent wins when there is a 2 on the board.
>
> > Hand #3 You have AK of hearts, and yoru opponent has 6-7 of hearts.
> > Your opponent wins when there is a 6 on the board.
>
> > Did you lose because of bad skill or bad luck??
>
> > thanks.
>
> This is tournament poker, right? You do understand what extremely short
> stacks do to NL holdem don't you?
>
> Wayne Vinsonhttp://cardsharp.org
>
> -------
> : the next generation of web-newsreaders :http://www.recgroups.com- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Thank you all for the responses. Yes, Morphy you too.

Like I said, these were observations I made at several different B&M
tournaments. The hands did not involve me. The players who lost
these hands were players I have come to know over the last year or so,
and the "winners" of these hands were players who typically never make
the money at these tournaments.

Over the past couple of tournaments it appeared to me that "luck"
dominated.

I started playing poker about two years ago (yep its almost two years
now) because my son wanted me to move away from "luck games" including
craps.

So when I see "luck" dominating poker as I have this past week it
makes me wonder what is the difference between poker and craps?

I have witnessed such a run of "bad luck" that it is hard to believe
that skill is as important as it is in the game.

But the stat of AK beating A2 by about three to one is a stat I can
understand and accept, just as AA doesnt always beat KK. And yes, Ive
been the AA player who has lost and know how frustrating that is.

thanks again.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

> Thank you all for the responses. Yes, Morphy you too.
>
> Like I said, these were observations I made at several different B&M
> tournaments. The hands did not involve me. The players who lost
> these hands were players I have come to know over the last year or so,
> and the "winners" of these hands were players who typically never make
> the money at these tournaments.
>
> Over the past couple of tournaments it appeared to me that "luck"
> dominated.
>
> I started playing poker about two years ago (yep its almost two years
> now) because my son wanted me to move away from "luck games" including
> craps.
>
> So when I see "luck" dominating poker as I have this past week it
> makes me wonder what is the difference between poker and craps?
>
> I have witnessed such a run of "bad luck" that it is hard to believe
> that skill is as important as it is in the game.
>
> But the stat of AK beating A2 by about three to one is a stat I can
> understand and accept, just as AA doesnt always beat KK. And yes, Ive
> been the AA player who has lost and know how frustrating that is.
>
> thanks again.

The fundamental difference between craps and poker is not the presence of
luck, but what kind of expectation you can achieve over the long run when
luck ceases to be the dominant factor. With craps, you can't win in the
long run no matter what you do. With poker you can win. However, that
doesn't mean that you will - you have to become sufficiently skillful.
Most people can't win at poker any more than they can win at craps.

Wayne Vinson
http://cardsharp.org

-------- 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 24, 12:51 pm, alan <mone....RemoveThis@aol.com> wrote:
> On Sep 24, 9:24?am, "Wayne Vinson" <wayne.vin....RemoveThis@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Sep 23 2007 10:54 PM, alan wrote:
>
> > > Indulge me please, for a minute, and play this "game."
>
> > > I will give you three hands involving you (player A) and one opponent
> > > (player B). You (player A) will lose each hand. In each hand both you
> > > and your opponent are all-in pre flop. In each hand you and your
> > > opponent have an equal amount of starting chips. Tell me if you lost
> > > because of bad skill or bad luck.
>
> > > Hand #1 You have AK offsuit, your opponent has AT offsuit. Your
> > > opponent wins when there is a T on the board.
>
> > > Hand #2 You have AK suited, your oppenent has A2 offsuit. Your
> > > opponent wins when there is a 2 on the board.
>
> > > Hand #3 You have AK of hearts, and yoru opponent has 6-7 of hearts.
> > > Your opponent wins when there is a 6 on the board.
>
> > > Did you lose because of bad skill or bad luck??
>
> > > thanks.
>
> > This is tournament poker, right? You do understand what extremely short
> > stacks do to NL holdem don't you?
>
> > Wayne Vinsonhttp://cardsharp.org
>
> > -------
> > : the next generation of web-newsreaders :http://www.recgroups.com-Hide quoted text -
>
> > - Show quoted text -
>
> Thank you all for the responses. Yes, Morphy you too.
>
> Like I said, these were observations I made at several different B&M
> tournaments. The hands did not involve me. The players who lost
> these hands were players I have come to know over the last year or so,
> and the "winners" of these hands were players who typically never make
> the money at these tournaments.
>
> Over the past couple of tournaments it appeared to me that "luck"
> dominated.
>
> I started playing poker about two years ago (yep its almost two years
> now) because my son wanted me to move away from "luck games" including
> craps.
>
> So when I see "luck" dominating poker as I have this past week it
> makes me wonder what is the difference between poker and craps?
>
> I have witnessed such a run of "bad luck" that it is hard to believe
> that skill is as important as it is in the game.
>
> But the stat of AK beating A2 by about three to one is a stat I can
> understand and accept, just as AA doesnt always beat KK. And yes, Ive
> been the AA player who has lost and know how frustrating that is.
>
> thanks again.- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

I think it was Phil Gordon who said; if a game is 99% luck, then the
1% determines who the winners are .
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

> Thank you all for the responses. Yes, Morphy you too.
>
> Over the past couple of tournaments it appeared to me that "luck"
> dominated.

Alright well based on that, I have one last thing to offer. A few years
ago when I did the first hour tourney advice posts, someone replied with
one of the best articles I've read on poker, that deals with the very
topic you're talking about. Hope this helps:

http://www.pocketfives.com/B3D5977E-CDC7-4F28-BECB-1499D1C38A48.aspx

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy.DeleteThis@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com

____________________________________________________________________ 
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

Losses are always because of bad luck.

Wins are always because of just general superiority as a person.

There's no other way to look at things.

On Sep 23 2007 10:54 PM, alan wrote:

> Indulge me please, for a minute, and play this "game."
>
> I will give you three hands involving you (player A) and one opponent
> (player B). You (player A) will lose each hand. In each hand both you
> and your opponent are all-in pre flop. In each hand you and your
> opponent have an equal amount of starting chips. Tell me if you lost
> because of bad skill or bad luck.
>
> Hand #1 You have AK offsuit, your opponent has AT offsuit. Your
> opponent wins when there is a T on the board.
>
> Hand #2 You have AK suited, your oppenent has A2 offsuit. Your
> opponent wins when there is a 2 on the board.
>
> Hand #3 You have AK of hearts, and yoru opponent has 6-7 of hearts.
> Your opponent wins when there is a 6 on the board.
>
> Did you lose because of bad skill or bad luck??
>
> thanks.
Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com



_______________________________________________________________
Your Online Poker Community - http://www.recpoker.com
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

the hands did NOT involve me.

Frankly, some of us at the table were amazed that these hands lost...
we were also amazed that the winner of the hands, with the inferior
hole cards, would either go all in themselves or call an all in.



On Sep 24, 3:22 pm, A Man Beaten by Jacks <nob....TakeThisOut@fool.foo> wrote:
> On Sun, 23 Sep 2007 21:37:45 -0700, alan <mone....TakeThisOut@aol.com> wrote:
> >On Sep 23, 9:25?pm, A Man Beaten by Jacks <nob....TakeThisOut@fool.foo> wrote:
> >> On Sun, 23 Sep 2007 21:20:23 -0700, alan <mone....TakeThisOut@aol.com> wrote:
> >> >On Sep 23, 9:04?pm, A Man Beaten by Jacks <nob....TakeThisOut@fool.foo> wrote:
> >> >> On Sun, 23 Sep 2007 20:54:08 -0700, alan <mone....TakeThisOut@aol.com> wrote:
> >> >> >Indulge me please, for a minute, and play this "game."
> >> >> >I will give you three hands involving you (player A) and one opponent
> >> >> >(player B). You (player A) will lose each hand. In each hand both you
> >> >> >and your opponent are all-in pre flop.
> >> >> Really, how you ended up all-in preflop is more important than that you did.
> >> >> If being all-in preflop is the definition of the game, then obviously skill
> >> >> is completely irrelevant.
> >> >Okay, since you are turning this around... should player B have been
> >> >all in? did skill dictate that player B should be all in??
> >> Given what attendant circumstances?
> >I cant tell you. these were not my hands. I dont know the thought
> >processes for both players. All I know is that two players were in
> >the hands, all in. the "superior hand" lost in all three cases. was
> >this bad skill or bad luck?
>
> If the hands involved you, and you don't understand why what I asked
> is critical to answering that question, then clearly bad skill is involved in
> your losses, if not these particular hands.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

Thanks for the post to the article.

The comments about craps made by others are of course correct--- craps
is a "negative expectation game" and the more you play, the more you
will lose. Yes, in poker you can make a profit. In my short "career"
I'm doing quite well -- and much much better than I ever did at craps.

cheers, alan


On Sep 24, 11:21 am, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5....DeleteThis@webnntp.invalid> wrote:
> > Thank you all for the responses. Yes, Morphy you too.
>
> > Over the past couple of tournaments it appeared to me that "luck"
> > dominated.
>
> Alright well based on that, I have one last thing to offer. A few years
> ago when I did the first hour tourney advice posts, someone replied with
> one of the best articles I've read on poker, that deals with the very
> topic you're talking about. Hope this helps:
>
> http://www.pocketfives.com/B3D5977E-CDC7-4F28-BECB-1499D1C38A48.aspx
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmor....DeleteThis@donkeymanifesto.comhttp://www.donkeymanifesto.com
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
> * kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more..www.recgroups.com
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

I think you are absolutely right Alan, luck does dominate the game. 

Edward does an excellent job of articluating the standard rationalization that
serious poker players use to justify their approach to the game.  The fact is,
there are two ways (excluding cheating) to win money at poker, and neither
involve waiting for probablilities to play themsleves out.

The first and most important applies to ring games primarily (tourneys too but
to a lesser degree).  Only play against people you know you can beat .  Ring
game poker is essentially a hustle.  Succesful ring game players can size up a
mark and take his/her money.  This isn't about "outplaying someone", it's about
finding a sucker or suckers and exploiting them.

The second applies more to tourneys - get lucky.  Play solid poker, enjoy a run
of great cards, take no bad beats, suckouts or coolers and cash big.  The
ability to identify suckers is important here too of course, especially in the
early stages.  But later on, its the guy who runs good who wins. 

Now a reasonably high level of skill is certainly required, but it is not
what makes you win money, it's the pre-requisite to allow you to take advantage
of the above two approaches.


On Sep 24 2007 6:14 AM, Edward wrote:

> On Sep 24, 6:03 am, alan wrote:
> >
> > Skill is basic... you play good hands, you bet according to your
> > cards, to the board, to the possibility of drawing... but it is luck
> > that will determine your fate. Luck.
>
>
> It's easy to understand the way that you feel and obvious that you
> haven't had enough experience to really understand the game. In order
> to overcome the way that you're thinking, you need to study the game
> and educate yourself.
>
> Poker is like no other game that you've probably observed. It's not a
> sporting event that determines a winner in 4 quarters, or nine innings
> or 18 holes.
>
> Yes, there is luck involved, but that is not what will determine your
> fate. Sure, if you're just considering the outcome of one session,
> then luck can be a determining factor, but if you study the game and
> gain more experience, you'll learn that poker is a game of long term
> results. Playing winning poker is determined in months, even years -
> not an afternoon at a table.
>
> The game is based on probability and winning is a matter playing out
> the time it takes to allow those probabilities to play themself out.
> Given enough trials, the correct odds of a particular event happening
> do eventually become a reality.
>
> AK suited is about a 3:1 favorite to win against A2 offsuit. That
> doesn't necessarily mean that the AK will win three times out of four
> trials. A2 could conceivably win the first 382 trials because there is
> luck involved. But given enough trials - could take years or even
> longer than the time you have left in this life - the AK will
> eventually win 3/4s of the trials. Might take 6 billion trials before
> that happens, but it will eventually happen. Usually odds become
> apparent after just a short time, but there's no guarantee of exactly
> when. Seeing AK lose to weaker hands 3 times in a row or even 100
> times in a row has no meaningful purpose for discussion of poker.
>
> Someone once said, in fact a lot of people have said, so I don't know
> where it originated - Good luck is what happens when preparation meets
> opportunity.
>
> Just keep learning the game until you understand how to play the odds
> properly, learn some about betting strategy, and you will become a
> winning player.



_______________________________________________________________
Watch Lists, Block Lists, Favorites - http://www.recpoker.com
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

> Frankly, some of us at the table were amazed that these hands lost...

Some of you at the table have no understanding of the math involved in
poker.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy.TakeThisOut@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com

_____________________________________________________________________ 
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On 24 Sep., 05:54, alan <mone... RemoveThis @aol.com> wrote:
> Indulge me please, for a minute, and play this "game."
>
> I will give you three hands involving you (player A) and one opponent
> (player B). You (player A) will lose each hand. In each hand both you
> and your opponent are all-in pre flop. In each hand you and your
> opponent have an equal amount of starting chips. Tell me if you lost
> because of bad skill or bad luck.
>
> Hand #1 You have AK offsuit, your opponent has AT offsuit. Your
> opponent wins when there is a T on the board.
>
> Hand #2 You have AK suited, your oppenent has A2 offsuit. Your
> opponent wins when there is a 2 on the board.
>
> Hand #3 You have AK of hearts, and yoru opponent has 6-7 of hearts.
> Your opponent wins when there is a 6 on the board.
>
> Did you lose because of bad skill or bad luck??
>
> thanks.

I once made a Roulette Simulation. It simulated the outcoming of some
popular betting patterns in the long run. Much to my surprise in a run
with 1 Million spins, i received a positive outcome. I repeated those
runs over and over, and almost everytime i turned out as a winner.

I wondered how that could be, because i knew that there is no betting
pattern which could overcome the house edge. Or at least that was what
i tried to prove. Did i just uncover a winning strategy for roulette?
The Answer is: No, i just had a little bug in there which gave me
about 2% of an edge, instead of the house.

Even really small edges make you an almost guaranteed winner over the
long term. Casinos are the best prove for that. Now if your skill lets
you constantly put your money in as a favorite, you will be a winner
too.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ??