Frequency of Set-Over-Set Confrontations?

External Since: Nov 21, 2007 Posts: 138

Dear Math Experts:

Here's a change (for me) - a poker-related post!! Smile

))

I sent a message to a friend of mine concerning set-over-set
confrontations. I have been involved in two such confrontations in
practice versus the Wilson software - one which I won and one which I
lost. At first I thought such confrontations are infrequent,
occurring maybe once in every [close to] 500 hands. After putting pen
to paper and trying to do a probability calculation, I concluded that
the actual odds may be closer to 203:1 against flopping a set and
being up against another set; but I'm not even sure about that. (I'm
not that good at math.) I'm wondering if the actual odds may be
closer to something like 100:1 against? Here is my message to my
friend.

Alan C. Lawhon
Huntsville, Alabama

Les (not his real name):

An interesting hand came up last night versus the Wilson Software that
makes me think set-over-set confrontations may not be that rare. I
was UTG with pocket Jacks versus a nearly full table. I decided to
limp and see how many players entered the pot. If there was a strong
open-raise, a call, (and/or a re-raise indicating that I might be beat
pre-flop), I intended to fold as it was early in the game and I was
out of position. If there was only one caller or an open-raise from
the button, then I would call and hope for a Jack on the flop.

That’s exactly what happened: It folded around to the dealer button
who came in for a standard 4x BB open raise. Both blinds folded and I
called. The flop came down J-9-x. I immediately led out with a pot-
sized bet. I was re-raised twice the pot so I re-re-raised (all-in)
for my remaining 530 chips. I was called. We had both flopped sets:
I flopped a set of Jacks and the dealer had a pair of pocket 9’s. My
three Jacks held up and I stacked the dealer to take the chip lead. I
went on to finish in second place.

So this is twice (in two games) where I have been involved in set-over-
set confrontations. Given all this, I’m beginning to think that set-
over-set is not that rare. Rather than occurring maybe once in every
203 hands, (which is more often than being dealt pocket Aces), maybe
set-over-set occurs closer to once every 100 hands?

Alan

External Since: Apr 17, 2008 Posts: 9

If you have a pocket pair and are against one opponent with a pocket
pair, you will have set over set on the flop about 1.4% of the time.
About 1/11 when you flop a set your opponent will also have flopped a
set if he has a pocket pair. So it does happen quite a bit ut of
hands with a chance of it happening.