The following are the big losers when the anti-online poker ban goes into
effect;
1) The small internet sites that do not have a large non-US player base.
These guys will not survive and will either go under or be acquired by
larger online sites. This will accelerate the shake-out and consolidation
of the online poker industry.
2) The big internet sites like Party Poker will survive but about half of
their current revenue comes from US based players. They will have to
streamline their operation, acquire some of the smaller sites and re-focus
their marketing efforts. Party just canceled their current quarterly stock
dividend which will give them an additional $115M for acquisitions.
3) Affiliates with a U.S. player base. These guys are probably finished,
which should at least reduce the spam level on RGP a little.
4) Poker magazines other than CardPlayer. Most of these will probably go
under from the loss of advertising revenue from online sites and the general
reduction in the number of poker players who will lose interest once they
can't play online.
5) Card Player will certainly survive but take a big hit when they lose ad
revenue from the online sites.
6) Miscellaneous small sideline businesses, writers and web sites that
derived most of their revenue from online poker sites and online poker
players. Some will adapt and survive but most will go under with barely a
ripple.
7) Poker players who made the majority of their income from playing online
and those that have no B&M alternatives available. Also, all of the poker
players who have access to B&M rooms but played tournaments online or
supplemented their B&M income with online play.
The major poker tournaments that got a substantial number of their
entrants from online poker sites. In the 2006 WSOP main event, probably
half of the 8,800 players either won their seat online or entered with money
they had won playing online.
9) The poker pros with lucrative online endorsements. Some of the big names
will no doubt still prosper because of their international status. However,
those poker players who are less famous will probably lose out. Any way you
slice it, this legislation is bad news for the poker industry and
professional poker players.
10) All of the people who would have benefited from the jobs and tax dollars
that could have been generated if the US politicians had decided to regulate
and tax online poker in the U.S., instead of killing it.
Who will the ban help:
1) Well, logic would say that there have to be some online players who will
now move to B&M poker rooms. The same is true for those who run private,
semi-private and "charity" fund raiser games.
2) Poker players, both professional and amateur, who are not based in the
U.S. The big online sites are going to be competing fiercely for their
business. There should also be a lot more endorsement opportunities for non
U.S. based professionals.
2) Who ever is smart enough to step in and offer former online poker players
some alternative to spend their time and money. I don't have a clue what
this might be but you can bet some one is working on it as you read this.
3) Some of the players who were losing their asses playing online - until
they discover a new way to lose their money.
4) All the politicians who will, or at least think they will, benefit from
having killed this multi-million dollar industry.
Doubtless there are many that can be added to either list.
Irish Mike
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