Bad skill or bad luck ??

On Sep 25, 12:38 am, Gary Carson <garycar....RemoveThis@alumni.northwestern.edu>
wrote:
> On Sep 24 2007 5:41 PM, alan wrote:
>
> > Thanks for the post to the article.
>
> > The comments about craps made by others are of course correct--- craps
> > is a "negative expectation game"
>
> No, it's not, it's a zero sum game.
>
> Most available bets in most craps games are negative expectation bets.
>
> The first time I played craps was in a private game that had many positive
> expectation bets available.
>
> Gary Carsonhttp://www.garycarson.com
>
> _______________________________________________________________
> New Feature: Mark All As Read! -http://www.recpoker.com

He meant its a negative expectation game for the player.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

> Good player or bad player... when youre the short stack and youve paid
> $1050 to be in a tournament, and you have KK and there is one player
> between you and getting your money back (or a small profit) you might
> consider folding your KK when faced with an all in.

Assuming it was a standard tournament with standard payouts and not a
satellite of some type...no good player would fold KK unless he was
physically shown AA or had some sort of miracle read that he was against
AA.

If you've seen players do it, then those players are not good players.
Buyin doesn't matter.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy DeleteThis @donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com

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 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 25 2007 6:41 AM, teonanacatl.RemoveThis@gmx.ch wrote:

> On 25 Sep., 06:39, Gary Carson
> wrote:
> > On Sep 24 2007 6:19 PM, teonanac....RemoveThis@gmx.ch wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > On 24 Sep., 05:54, alan wrote:
> > > > Indulge me please, for a minute, and play this "game."
> >
> > > > I will give you three hands involving you (player A) and one opponent
> > > > (player B). You (player A) will lose each hand. In each hand both you
> > > > and your opponent are all-in pre flop. In each hand you and your
> > > > opponent have an equal amount of starting chips. Tell me if you lost
> > > > because of bad skill or bad luck.
> >
> > > > Hand #1 You have AK offsuit, your opponent has AT offsuit. Your
> > > > opponent wins when there is a T on the board.
> >
> > > > Hand #2 You have AK suited, your oppenent has A2 offsuit. Your
> > > > opponent wins when there is a 2 on the board.
> >
> > > > Hand #3 You have AK of hearts, and yoru opponent has 6-7 of hearts.
> > > > Your opponent wins when there is a 6 on the board.
> >
> > > > Did you lose because of bad skill or bad luck??
> >
> > > > thanks.
> >
> > > I once made a Roulette Simulation. It simulated the outcoming of some
> > > popular betting patterns in the long run. Much to my surprise in a run
> > > with 1 Million spins, i received a positive outcome. I repeated those
> > > runs over and over, and almost everytime i turned out as a winner.
> >
> > > I wondered how that could be, because i knew that there is no betting
> > > pattern which could overcome the house edge. Or at least that was what
> > > i tried to prove. Did i just uncover a winning strategy for roulette?
> > > The Answer is: No, i just had a little bug in there which gave me
> > > about 2% of an edge, instead of the house.
> >
> > There are betting patterns in roulette which have a very high probability of
> > ending up winner,
> >
>
> Not really. Maybe a bit higher than you would have with no system at
> all. But you will still end as a loser in the long run.


Expected value and chances of winning aren't the same thing at all. 


Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com



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 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 25, 2:00?pm, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5... RemoveThis @webnntp.invalid> wrote:
> > Good player or bad player... when youre the short stack and youve paid
> > $1050 to be in a tournament, and you have KK and there is one player
> > between you and getting your money back (or a small profit) you might
> > consider folding your KK when faced with an all in.
>
> Assuming it was a standard tournament with standard payouts and not a
> satellite of some type...no good player would fold KK unless he was
> physically shown AA or had some sort of miracle read that he was against
> AA.
>
> If you've seen players do it, then those players are not good players.
> Buyin doesn't matter.
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmor... RemoveThis @donkeymanifesto.comhttp://www.donkeymanifesto.com
>
> _______________________________________________________________________
> RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader :www.recgroups.com

Since I am not the player in question here, I can't speak for him.

But if you ask me, your response reminds me of the punchline that goes
like this: "the operation was a success, but the patient died."

pushing with KK on the bubble might be the right move, but if you
lose-- you are out on the bubble-- and you died.

even though Ive only been playing poker for less than two years, I
have come to learn that the "second best hand" is not good enough.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

> Since I am not the player in question here, I can't speak for him.
>
> But if you ask me, your response reminds me of the punchline that goes
> like this: "the operation was a success, but the patient died."
>
> pushing with KK on the bubble might be the right move, but if you
> lose-- you are out on the bubble-- and you died.
>
> even though Ive only been playing poker for less than two years, I
> have come to learn that the "second best hand" is not good enough.

You are a really good troll. I'll give you that. Intentionally or not,
you're really good at it. Get you and Wayne Vinson together and I believe
you could develop a perpetual motion machine with your posts alone.

I'll say it again, a good player doesn't fold KK there. Never. Take that
for what you will, but it's not an opinion. It's a fact.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy RemoveThis @donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com

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 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 25 2007 2:51 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> I'll say it again, a good player doesn't fold KK there. Never. Take that
> for what you will, but it's not an opinion. It's a fact.
>
> ---
> Morphy

Hellmuth might.

Fell

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 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

> Hellmuth might.

(5:59:19 PM) XaQ Morphy: lol and no way would hellmuth fold KK
(5:59:27 PM) FellKnight9999: lol
(5:59:28 PM) FellKnight9999: he might
(5:59:32 PM) FellKnight9999: if anyone would
(5:59:33 PM) FellKnight9999: he would
(5:59:35 PM) XaQ Morphy: he would get in, then spend $30k on insurance on
the hand
(5:59:44 PM) FellKnight9999: maybe
(5:59:56 PM) FellKnight9999: but say he was about to set the record for
most cashes in the WSOP ME
(5:59:59 PM) FellKnight9999: its on the bubble
(6:00:05 PM) FellKnight9999: and some guy moves in on him
(6:00:15 PM) FellKnight9999: the TV cameras swarm
(6:00:19 PM) XaQ Morphy: lolol
(6:00:24 PM) XaQ Morphy: does the guy have a beard and a red hat too?
(6:00:30 PM) FellKnight9999: YES
(6:00:32 PM) XaQ Morphy: haha
(6:00:36 PM) XaQ Morphy: ok well then I can see it

So there it is folks. If Hellmuth is on the bubble about to set the
record for most cashes in the WSOP ME, and Santa Claus moves in on him, he
might fold.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy RemoveThis @donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com

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 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Mon, 24 Sep 2007 09:51:38 -0700, alan <moneyla.RemoveThis@aol.com> wrote:

>So when I see "luck" dominating poker as I have this past week it
>makes me wonder what is the difference between poker and craps?

Is this a trick question?

>I have witnessed such a run of "bad luck" that it is hard to believe
>that skill is as important as it is in the game.

Don't believe it, then.
--

~ Seth Jackson

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Songwriting and Music Business Info: http://www.sethjackson.net
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 25, 7:32 pm, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5....DeleteThis@webnntp.invalid> wrote:
> > The question is how you are facing all-in, not just that you're facing
> all-in.
> > From one player, never. If a big stack open-jams, another player cold
> > calls this, then an ultra-tight rock calls that, or raises, and another
> person
> > quite aware of the rockiness of the rock calls that, then I think you don't
> > even think very long before folding it. There are some situations short of
> > the contrived nature of that one in which folding might be correct.
>
> You should know by now that Alan never takes those things into
> consideration. He simply looks at his hole cards and decides what to do
> from there.
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmor....DeleteThis@donkeymanifesto.comhttp://www.donkeymanifesto.com
>
> _______________________________________________________________________
> * kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more..www.recgroups.com

If you want to get cute there are a few designed situations where you
would fold AA. Being "on the bubble" isn't enough.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Tue, 25 Sep 2007 15:53:51 -0700, "FellKnight" <jordandevenport.RemoveThis@hotmail.com>
wrote:

>On Sep 25 2007 2:51 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

>> I'll say it again, a good player doesn't fold KK there. Never. Take that
>> for what you will, but it's not an opinion. It's a fact.

>Hellmuth might.

The question is how you are facing all-in, not just that you're facing all-in.
From one player, never. If a big stack open-jams, another player cold
calls this, then an ultra-tight rock calls that, or raises, and another person
quite aware of the rockiness of the rock calls that, then I think you don't
even think very long before folding it. There are some situations short of
the contrived nature of that one in which folding might be correct.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

> The question is how you are facing all-in, not just that you're facing
all-in.
> From one player, never. If a big stack open-jams, another player cold
> calls this, then an ultra-tight rock calls that, or raises, and another
person
> quite aware of the rockiness of the rock calls that, then I think you don't
> even think very long before folding it. There are some situations short of
> the contrived nature of that one in which folding might be correct.

You should know by now that Alan never takes those things into
consideration. He simply looks at his hole cards and decides what to do
from there.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy.RemoveThis@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com

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 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 25, 4:02 pm, alan <mone....DeleteThis@aol.com> wrote:
> On Sep 25, 8:09?am, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5....DeleteThis@webnntp.invalid> wrote:
>
> > > Ive seen players who were on the bubble, short stack, fold KK when
> > > faced with an all in so they would make the money. Not unheard of.
>
> > Nick was talking about good players.
>
> > ---
> > Morphy
> > xaqmor....DeleteThis@donkeymanifesto.comhttp://www.donkeymanifesto.com
>
> > ---
> > * kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more..www.recgroups.com
>
> Good player or bad player... when youre the short stack and youve paid
> $1050 to be in a tournament, and you have KK and there is one player
> between you and getting your money back (or a small profit) you might
> consider folding your KK when faced with an all in.

It would be a skillful decision to make.
 >> Stay informed about: Bad skill or bad luck ?? 

On Sep 25 2007 3:02 PM, alan wrote:

> On Sep 25, 8:09?am, "XaQ Morphy" wrote:
> > > Ive seen players who were on the bubble, short stack, fold KK when
> > > faced with an all in so they would make the money. Not unheard of.
> >
> > Nick was talking about good players.
> >
> > ---
> > Morphy
> > xaqmor... DeleteThis @donkeymanifesto.comhttp://www.donkeymanifesto.com/
> Good player or bad player... when youre the short stack and youve paid
> $1050 to be in a tournament, and you have KK and there is one player
> between you and getting your money back (or a small profit) you might
> consider folding your KK when faced with an all in.

You might.

You might also think about buying peanuts and a hammer from the Home Shopping
Market and making your own peanut butter.


Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com



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