skill is overrated

Gary Carson wrote:

> Really?
>
> He's saying that poker is all skill but there's some other game (strip poker?)
> that's all luck.
>
> I'm not sure that's very insightful. But I guess in the land of the blind and
> all that.

Huh... I tried to make it clear. So even in the land of the blind and
all that.

You take a game that is based on 100% luck and means nothing, and you
add lack of information, more betting rounds, and folding, and then you
create ERROR in the game. Inducing, seeing, and taking advantage of
error is the skill. But there is still this underlying game of luck.
I really don't think that I ever implied that poker was "all skill".
Rather that skill is what tends to separate the winners and losers, and
what the nature of the skill was.

But whatever.

Thanks for the feedback. NH GG.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

It's true.  I hate it how the good players always get lucky.  And the rare times
that they don't, they wussily FOLD.

On Jan 15 2008 5:55 PM, Dutch wrote:

> alan wrote:
> > On Jan 15, 1:48�pm, "Wayne Vinson" wrote:
> >> On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:
> >>
> >>> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> >>> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> >>> a game of luck.
> >> Ok, you're right, it's all luck. �I'm just incredibly lucky. �That's
> >> why I
> >> keep winning. �I feel sorry for all those unlucky souls who can't match
> >> my
> >> ability to catch cards. �Sucks to be them.
> >>
> >> Wayne Vinsonhttp://cardsharp.org/
> >> Wayne (dot) Vinson (at) gmail (dot) com
> > No Wayne, I said its primarily a game of luck and luck is overrated.
> > YOU said its all luck, but i know you are being facetious. try again.
>
> It's only primarily luck in the short term, over the longer haul
> it's pure skill. In a random five table tourney, given the same
> cards, a skillful player will finish much higher virtually every
> time than an unskilled one just because he will observe cues and
> recognize when to make plays and when to sit tight. His use of
> pot odds, patience, careful aggression and position will give
> him an immediate advantage over the average player. Finishing
> consistently high is the key to cashing.



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 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 15 2008 2:18 PM, alan wrote:

> On Jan 15, 12:10=EF=BF=BDpm, David Nicoson wrote:
> > On Jan 15, 3:06 pm, alan wrote:
> >
> > > The skill factor? =EF=BF=BDHad the player with KK made a big raise pre f=
> lop I
> > > might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> > > I might have.
> >
> > The skill factor is that a good player will fold KK after all that
> > action on that board.
>
> I doubt that. But nice try.
>
> also last night, pre flop, two players are all in. one has KK another
> AA. did you really expect the KK player to fold when another player
> was all in? does the KK player "know" that the other player is
> holding AA ??

People do fold KK occasionally, on all streets.

If I was bold enough to cold call $15 and let a family pot develop. I would
be looking for reasons to fold on J55.

Bryan

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On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:

> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> a game of luck.

This isn't meant to be insulting, but the reason you think the way you do
is because you have a very low understanding of the game of poker. You
feel the entire game is about how your cards match up with the board. You
have no concept of any of the math involved in poker. You think that if
you won a hand you did something right, and if you lost a hand you did
something wrong.

As long as you still have these thoughts, you will be posting things like
this, and will have the thoughts that you do about luck and skill in poker.

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On Jan 15, 3:06 pm, alan <mone... DeleteThis @aol.com> wrote:
> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> a game of luck.
>
> skill?  yeah, when there are found clubs on the board and your pocket
> aces are both red, and there are three other players in the hand...
> skill tells you not to bet.  put it another way, when you have AA
> (both red) you want to make a huge bet so that you aren't facing a
> showdown with four clubs on the board.  okay, I concede that is the
> "skill" part of the game.
>
> now the luck...  gosh, did I see LUCK rule the day (or the night) last
> night in a $100 live game at Hollywood Park.  (blinds are $3 and $2)
>
> In my biggest win of the night (a pot worth more than $400) I have JJ
> under the gun.  I raise the BB to $15 and I get four callers.  So
> there is now $75+ in the pot.
>
> The flop comes 5-5-J. (I flop a full house)
>
> I am first to act and bet $50 (less than the pot).
> Player to my immediate left raises to $100.
> Two other players fold.  the last of the four callers goes all in for
> his remaining $55 or so.
>
> Actionn comes back to me and I reraise to $200.
> Player to my left goes all in.
> Action back to me and Im all in.
>
> The turn and the river are both blanks for we three players.
>
> End result--  I win with JJJ55.
> The player to my immediate left had KK.
> The third player had A-5.
>
> The skill factor?  Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> I might have.
>
> The luck factor?  How lucky I was to flop a full house with JJ when
> another player had KK and didn't hit???  Amazing.

It's this type of thinking that allows skilled players to become
succesful. As of right now, skilled players should refrain from
arguing that skill is important in this game because it's just
another
form of tapping the glass.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 15, 3:55 pm, Dutch <n....TakeThisOut@email.com> wrote:
> alan wrote:
> > On Jan 15, 1:48�pm, "Wayne Vinson" <a7a8....TakeThisOut@webnntp.invalid> wrote:
> >> On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:
>
> >>> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> >>> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> >>> a game of luck.
> >> Ok, you're right, it's all luck. �I'm just incredibly lucky. �That's why I
> >> keep winning. �I feel sorry for all those unlucky souls who can't match my
> >> ability to catch cards. �Sucks to be them.
>
> >> Wayne Vinsonhttp://cardsharp.org
> >> Wayne (dot) Vinson (at) gmail (dot) com
>
> >> ------�
> >> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? -www.recgroups.com
>
> > No Wayne, I said its primarily a game of luck and luck is overrated.
> > YOU said its all luck, but i know you are being facetious.  try again.
>
> It's only primarily luck in the short term, over the longer haul
> it's pure skill. In a random five table tourney, given the same
> cards, a skillful player will finish much higher virtually every
> time than an unskilled one just because he will observe cues and
> recognize when to make plays and when to sit tight. His use of
> pot odds, patience, careful aggression and position will give
> him an immediate advantage over the average player. Finishing
> consistently high is the key to cashing.- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Yes, excellent answer. Tournament play has set limits built in. ie-
max # of chips available, raising blinds over time and eventually
antes. Luck plays a bigger role in these enviornments as you have to
make different decisions about when you get your chips in. Are you
short staked with the blinds going up next hand. In a cash game you
do not have these artificial liminatations, and can even reload as
needed. Here is where skill playes an even greater role. If you
raised 3 times the big blind on JJ, and I raised you 3 times your bet
having both position and a larger stack, wouldn'y you consider folding
pre-flop, especially if I was a tight player. I think you'd really
would consider mucking. Here is one more thing to think about. If it
was all luck, then those who cash at these big tourneys would not have
many of the same names in them year after year, after year, after
year...
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

alan wrote:
> On Jan 15, 2:55 pm, Dutch <n... RemoveThis @email.com> wrote:
>> alan wrote:
>>> On Jan 15, 1:48�pm, "Wayne Vinson" <a7a8... RemoveThis @webnntp.invalid> wrote:
>>>> On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:
>>>>> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
>>>>> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
>>>>> a game of luck.
>>>> Ok, you're right, it's all luck. �I'm just incredibly lucky. �That's why I
>>>> keep winning. �I feel sorry for all those unlucky souls who can't match my
>>>> ability to catch cards. �Sucks to be them.
>>>> Wayne Vinsonhttp://cardsharp.org
>>>> Wayne (dot) Vinson (at) gmail (dot) com
>>>> ------�
>>>> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? -www.recgroups.com
>>> No Wayne, I said its primarily a game of luck and luck is overrated.
>>> YOU said its all luck, but i know you are being facetious. try again.
>> It's only primarily luck in the short term, over the longer haul
>> it's pure skill. In a random five table tourney, given the same
>> cards, a skillful player will finish much higher virtually every
>> time than an unskilled one just because he will observe cues and
>> recognize when to make plays and when to sit tight. His use of
>> pot odds, patience, careful aggression and position will give
>> him an immediate advantage over the average player. Finishing
>> consistently high is the key to cashing.- Hide quoted text -
>>
>> - Show quoted text -
>
> Dutch, Ive seen this comment many times before: "It's only primarily
> luck in the short term, over the longer haul it's pure skill."
>
> Frankly, I don't "buy it," because the combination of events and
> conditions for one hand of poker will NEVER be duplicated again.
> Therefore, the experiences of one particular hand will never present
> themselves in the same way. Poker is one unique hand with unique
> conditions after another unique hand with unique conditions, isn't it?

But that's the nature of reality in general, every event is
unique. However, situations can be sufficiently similar that a
skilled player can take advantage of ones that present
opportunity and avoid those that are likely to be dangerous.

> Yes, you can learn from one hand of poker not to play 7-2 offsuit when
> there are two other callers with deep stacks and you have enough chips
> left for the next big blind.

Last night I had limped into a pot with Q-Js, and the flop came
2-2-7, I figured that the flop likely missed everyone, however,
long story short, the guy behind me had come in with 2-7. He
ended up losing to a better FH when a 5 came on the turn and the
player behind him held 5-5. Hard lesson.

> But suppose the next time you have 7-2 off and you are the chip leader
> and on the button? there are three limpers ahead of you and you raise
> to 10X the BB. I saw it in a tournament tonight. An absolute bluff
> and the bluffer showed when the others folded. It was beautiful.
>
> Yeah, there was some skill in that-- he read the table and no one had
> a strong hand so he bluffed, and he got darn lucky, didn't he? one
> caller could have ruined his day.

That is an excellent example of poker skill. He made money off a
hand that a less skilled player would have never thought
possible, but more importantly, if he had been called he still
would have reaped a benefit, he portrayed a reckless image in
the minds of the other players, something he could exploit later
to induce a call when he bets a strong hand. There is hardly a
hand in a game of hold'em that does not offer a chance for
skillful play.

And on the "long haul" thing, sure, it's just a concept, some
people will over a lifetime get better cards than others, but
there is so much room for skill in play that a good player will
make more money with the inferior cards than a weak player will
with the good ones. You must have played in events where you
were drawing badly but were especially patient and observant,
maximizing and minimizing, and did well despite the poor cards.
That's skill. I came second in a tournament yesterday despite
getting lousy cards most of the night.

> thanks for the comments guys.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

alan wrote:
> On Jan 15, 1:11�pm, "WuzYoungOnceToo" <WuzYoungOnce....RemoveThis@yahoo.com>
> wrote:
>> On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:
>>
>>> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
>>> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
>>> a game of luck.
>> Have you considered the possibility that it is *your* skill that is
>> overrated?
>>
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>
> Ian, Wuz and others, thanks for your responses.
>
> Wuz: Im new at this. If I have any skill, it's "lucky" that I have
> it. I'm just learning.
>
> Ian: Yes, I understand what you are talking about. but I think in
> this case, the player with KK was licking his chops thinking he was
> going to win a lot of money... afterall he had KK.


In that case, he's an unskilled player - and this lack of skill is what
caused his downfall.



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 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

Gary Carson wrote:
>
> Really?
>
> He's saying that poker is all skill but there's some other game (strip poker?)
> that's all luck.
>
> I'm not sure that's very insightful. But I guess in the land of the blind and
> all that.
>
> Gary Carson

In the land of the blind, strip poker is not popular.

--
Kenneth Sloan KennethRSloan.DeleteThis@gmail.com
Computer and Information Sciences +1-205-932-2213
University of Alabama at Birmingham FAX +1-205-934-5473
Birmingham, AL 35294-1170 http://KennethRSloan.com/
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 16 2008 11:58 PM, wcwallace123.RemoveThis@gmail.com wrote:

>
> Yes, excellent answer. Tournament play has set limits built in. ie-
> max # of chips available, raising blinds over time and eventually
> antes. Luck plays a bigger role in these enviornments as you have to
> make different decisions about when you get your chips in. Are you
> short staked with the blinds going up next hand. In a cash game you
> do not have these artificial liminatations, and can even reload as
> needed. Here is where skill playes an even greater role. If you
> raised 3 times the big blind on JJ, and I raised you 3 times your bet
> having both position and a larger stack, wouldn'y you consider folding
> pre-flop,

If stacks are very deep (200-300BBs), no, I would not fold, as I would play my
Js for set vaule only, looking to stack you if I hit.  OTOH, I don't think I
would raise in EP in a full table with Js when stacks are that deep either.  I
might repop to see if you have AK/AQ when you raise, but I doubt I'll be
open-raising it with Js OOP.

>especially if I was a tight player.

What sort of tight player?  One who only plays premium starting hands preflop,
but gets married to them post flop, or one that can muck aces on an
innocent board when facing strong action?  It does make a difference, you know.

I think you'd really
> would consider mucking.

Not really, not if its deep stack.

http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/



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On Tue, 15 Jan 2008 13:01:21 -0800 (PST), alan <moneyla.RemoveThis@aol.com>
wrote:

>Ian: Yes, I understand what you are talking about. but I think in
>this case, the player with KK was licking his chops thinking he was
>going to win a lot of money... afterall he had KK.
>
>when I bet post flop he probably thought I had AJ or J-T. Im sure he
>ruled out JJ. I also think he ruled out that I held a 5. Would a
>player raise the $3 BB to $15 holding a 5, even A-5?? Very doubtful.
>Im sure he eliminated the idea that I was holding 55.

That shows a lack of skill on his part.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Wed, 16 Jan 2008 02:48:55 -0800 (PST), alan <moneyla.DeleteThis@aol.com>
wrote:

>Dutch, Ive seen this comment many times before: "It's only primarily
>luck in the short term, over the longer haul it's pure skill."
>
>Frankly, I don't "buy it," because the combination of events and
>conditions for one hand of poker will NEVER be duplicated again.
>Therefore, the experiences of one particular hand will never present
>themselves in the same way. Poker is one unique hand with unique
>conditions after another unique hand with unique conditions, isn't it?

Don't buy it, then, and feel free to keep on losing.

>Yes, you can learn from one hand of poker not to play 7-2 offsuit when
>there are two other callers with deep stacks and you have enough chips
>left for the next big blind.

Actually, I called with 72o the other day in the SB with 6 limpers.
Call it a hunch. I ended up with a full house and won another guy's
whole stack. What luck!

>But suppose the next time you have 7-2 off and you are the chip leader
>and on the button? there are three limpers ahead of you and you raise
>to 10X the BB. I saw it in a tournament tonight. An absolute bluff
>and the bluffer showed when the others folded. It was beautiful.

Then that was skill.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 17 2008 12:36 AM, Kenneth Sloan wrote:

> Gary Carson wrote:
> >
> > Really?
> >
> > He's saying that poker is all skill but there's some other game (strip
poker?)
> > that's all luck.
> >
> > I'm not sure that's very insightful. But I guess in the land of the blind
and
> > all that.
> >
> > Gary Carson
>
> In the land of the blind, strip poker is not popular.

It is where Braille is taught.

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