skill is overrated

On Jan 15, 12:10�pm, David Nicoson <bigda....DeleteThis@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On Jan 15, 3:06 pm, alan <mone....DeleteThis@aol.com> wrote:
>
> > The skill factor? �Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> > might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> > I might have.
>
> The skill factor is that a good player will fold KK after all that
> action on that board.

I doubt that. But nice try.

also last night, pre flop, two players are all in. one has KK another
AA. did you really expect the KK player to fold when another player
was all in? does the KK player "know" that the other player is
holding AA ??
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 15, 3:18 pm, alan <mone... RemoveThis @aol.com> wrote:
> I doubt that. But nice try.



Or reraise before the flop. It's hard to argue that he played it
well. He put in the minimum when he was ahead and the maximum when he
was behind.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 15, 12:06 pm, alan <mone... RemoveThis @aol.com> wrote:
> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> a game of luck.
>
> skill?  yeah, when there are found clubs on the board and your pocket
> aces are both red, and there are three other players in the hand...
> skill tells you not to bet.  put it another way, when you have AA
> (both red) you want to make a huge bet so that you aren't facing a
> showdown with four clubs on the board.  okay, I concede that is the
> "skill" part of the game.
>
> now the luck...  gosh, did I see LUCK rule the day (or the night) last
> night in a $100 live game at Hollywood Park.  (blinds are $3 and $2)
>
> In my biggest win of the night (a pot worth more than $400) I have JJ
> under the gun.  I raise the BB to $15 and I get four callers.  So
> there is now $75+ in the pot.
>
> The flop comes 5-5-J. (I flop a full house)
>
> I am first to act and bet $50 (less than the pot).
> Player to my immediate left raises to $100.
> Two other players fold.  the last of the four callers goes all in for
> his remaining $55 or so.
>
> Actionn comes back to me and I reraise to $200.
> Player to my left goes all in.
> Action back to me and Im all in.
>
> The turn and the river are both blanks for we three players.
>
> End result--  I win with JJJ55.
> The player to my immediate left had KK.
> The third player had A-5.
>
> The skill factor?  Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> I might have.
>
> The luck factor?  How lucky I was to flop a full house with JJ when
> another player had KK and didn't hit???  Amazing.

Sklansky has a good thought experiment in one of his books about two
players, one would go all-in with any two cards on every hand. The
other player is less than a 2-to-1 favorite in this encounter.

The point is, of course Poker is a game of luck. But all of the
players have luck, and in the end, it evens out ("over the long run.")
Skill is the determining factor as to whether or not, in the end, you
are a winner or a loser.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

Some hands play themselves. The skill factor is on those hands that
don't. The skill factor is that you got lucky that a king or the case
five didn't come on the turn or river.....lol.

On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:

> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> a game of luck.
>
> skill? yeah, when there are found clubs on the board and your pocket
> aces are both red, and there are three other players in the hand...
> skill tells you not to bet. put it another way, when you have AA
> (both red) you want to make a huge bet so that you aren't facing a
> showdown with four clubs on the board. okay, I concede that is the
> "skill" part of the game.
>
> now the luck... gosh, did I see LUCK rule the day (or the night) last
> night in a $100 live game at Hollywood Park. (blinds are $3 and $2)
>
> In my biggest win of the night (a pot worth more than $400) I have JJ
> under the gun. I raise the BB to $15 and I get four callers. So
> there is now $75+ in the pot.
>
> The flop comes 5-5-J. (I flop a full house)
>
> I am first to act and bet $50 (less than the pot).
> Player to my immediate left raises to $100.
> Two other players fold. the last of the four callers goes all in for
> his remaining $55 or so.
>
> Actionn comes back to me and I reraise to $200.
> Player to my left goes all in.
> Action back to me and Im all in.
>
> The turn and the river are both blanks for we three players.
>
> End result-- I win with JJJ55.
> The player to my immediate left had KK.
> The third player had A-5.
>
> The skill factor? Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> I might have.
>
> The luck factor? How lucky I was to flop a full house with JJ when
> another player had KK and didn't hit??? Amazing.

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 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 15 2008 8:06 PM, alan wrote:

> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> a game of luck.


Skill is relative. I consider myself reasonably intelligent and have been
playing seriously (ie started studying the game and putting real mental
effort into it) for over 7 years. I still consider myself a just slightly
above average player. If I had the level of skill I have now 7 years ago I
would have been well above average, but the field has improved along with
me in that time.

My point? with only two years experience it's very possible you grossly
overestimate your own skill level. If you don't do as well as you believe
you deserve it's natural to assume skill is not as big a part of the game
as some would have you believe. The truth may be you're just not as
skilled as you'd like to think.


>
> skill? yeah, when there are found clubs on the board and your pocket
> aces are both red, and there are three other players in the hand...
> skill tells you not to bet.

No. Your read on your opponents should tell you whether to bet or not.
Against the right opponents you can often win without the best hand. With
four opponents there's a high chance one of them has a flush, but is it
high enough for them to go to war with? Deciding which requires skill.

>put it another way, when you have AA
> (both red) you want to make a huge bet so that you aren't facing a
> showdown with four clubs on the board. okay, I concede that is the
> "skill" part of the game.

Are we talking flop, preflop or turn? Either way there are a whole lot of
other factors to consider. Stack sizes, tourney or cash, your image, how
your opponents play post flop, position. You seem to be grossly
oversimplifying a complex situation. Maybe that's just because this is a
USENET post, or maybe it's because you haven't yet develop a fully rounded
understanding of the game and all it's complexities.

>
> now the luck... gosh, did I see LUCK rule the day (or the night) last
> night in a $100 live game at Hollywood Park. (blinds are $3 and $2)
>
> In my biggest win of the night (a pot worth more than $400) I have JJ
> under the gun. I raise the BB to $15 and I get four callers. So
> there is now $75+ in the pot.
>
> The flop comes 5-5-J. (I flop a full house)
>
> I am first to act and bet $50 (less than the pot).
> Player to my immediate left raises to $100.
> Two other players fold. the last of the four callers goes all in for
> his remaining $55 or so.
>
> Actionn comes back to me and I reraise to $200.
> Player to my left goes all in.
> Action back to me and Im all in.
>
> The turn and the river are both blanks for we three players.
>
> End result-- I win with JJJ55.
> The player to my immediate left had KK.
> The third player had A-5.
>
> The skill factor? Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> I might have.
>
> The luck factor? How lucky I was to flop a full house with JJ when
> another player had KK and didn't hit??? Amazing.

I really don't see how this hand does anything to back up your POV. It's
one hand in isolation for starters. You were lucky to find an opponent who
slow played his kings, you were lucky he did not respect your bet on the
flop. Or maybe it wasn't just luck. Maybe there were factors that caused
him to play the way he chose. A good player would be able to identify
those factors and understand why the hand played the way it did.

There is a great deal of skill in poker. If you choose to decide otherwise
the consequence is that you will not put in the effort to develop your
game to the highest level your intellect can attain. Your choice.

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On Jan 15, 1:11�pm, "WuzYoungOnceToo" <WuzYoungOnce....TakeThisOut@yahoo.com>
wrote:
> On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:
>
> > Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> > I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> > a game of luck.
>
> Have you considered the possibility that it is *your* skill that is
> overrated?
>
> --------�
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Ian, Wuz and others, thanks for your responses.

Wuz: Im new at this. If I have any skill, it's "lucky" that I have
it. I'm just learning.

Ian: Yes, I understand what you are talking about. but I think in
this case, the player with KK was licking his chops thinking he was
going to win a lot of money... afterall he had KK.

when I bet post flop he probably thought I had AJ or J-T. Im sure he
ruled out JJ. I also think he ruled out that I held a 5. Would a
player raise the $3 BB to $15 holding a 5, even A-5?? Very doubtful.
Im sure he eliminated the idea that I was holding 55.

(By the way the player with A5 in this hand was last to act, and he
bet his $15 for "pot odds." Made sense for him with four other
jplayers already in the pot.)

No, I think the player with KK was making a skillful decision, and he
was a skillful player. This was a $100 buy in table and he had more
than $200 in his stack from winning previous hands. He knew what he
was doing. He got unlucky.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

> I doubt that. But nice try.

That is actually correct. You made money because of other players making
mistakes. Poker is a game of maximizing gains and minimizing losses. You
do that by making decisions. That is ALL skill. Now, how the cards come
out is random (luck) but the decisions you make in response to those cards
is the skill.

It is very easy to make just a few mistakes and be a losing player.

> also last night, pre flop, two players are all in. one has KK another
> AA. did you really expect the KK player to fold when another player
> was all in? does the KK player "know" that the other player is
> holding AA ??

Depending on how deep the stacks were, then maybe. That's a poor example
and not one that costs you much because it doesn't come up much (assuming
you just always get it all-in with KK when you can).

Dean

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On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:

> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> a game of luck.

Have you considered the possibility that it is *your* skill that is
overrated?

-------- 
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On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:
>
> The skill factor? Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> I might have.

I think we've found your biggest problem. You think poker is about
theoretical possibilities, rather than probabilities.

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On Jan 15, 12:06 pm, alan <mone... DeleteThis @aol.com> wrote:
> Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> a game of luck.
>
> skill?  yeah, when there are found clubs on the board and your pocket
> aces are both red, and there are three other players in the hand...
> skill tells you not to bet.  put it another way, when you have AA
> (both red) you want to make a huge bet so that you aren't facing a
> showdown with four clubs on the board.  okay, I concede that is the
> "skill" part of the game.
>
> now the luck...  gosh, did I see LUCK rule the day (or the night) last
> night in a $100 live game at Hollywood Park.  (blinds are $3 and $2)
>
> In my biggest win of the night (a pot worth more than $400) I have JJ
> under the gun.  I raise the BB to $15 and I get four callers.  So
> there is now $75+ in the pot.
>
> The flop comes 5-5-J. (I flop a full house)
>
> I am first to act and bet $50 (less than the pot).
> Player to my immediate left raises to $100.
> Two other players fold.  the last of the four callers goes all in for
> his remaining $55 or so.
>
> Actionn comes back to me and I reraise to $200.
> Player to my left goes all in.
> Action back to me and Im all in.
>
> The turn and the river are both blanks for we three players.
>
> End result--  I win with JJJ55.
> The player to my immediate left had KK.
> The third player had A-5.
>
> The skill factor?  Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> I might have.
>
> The luck factor?  How lucky I was to flop a full house with JJ when
> another player had KK and didn't hit???  Amazing.

Poker is a game of skill, patience, and chance: a game of waiting for
the opportunity to have the odds in your favor, but it takes skill and
patience to get you such a "lucky" opportunity like the one you just
described. Other players' mistakes are the main source of your
profits. The guy with KK, with all that action, made the mistake of
putting his money in. Ace Five would be hard to lay down with that
flop, the only likely hand that could beat him would bd JJ.



adapted from RUSH by Scott Richard Campbell

Good Luck to you, Sir
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 15, 3:18 pm, alan <mone....TakeThisOut@aol.com> wrote:
> I doubt that. But nice try.

If you're arguing he's pot committed after he puts in the 100, I can
see that if he has only slightly more than 200. Everything leading up
to that is a train wreck though.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 15, 1:17 pm, "BORN TO RUSH . COM" <drgohappy2... RemoveThis @yahoo.com>
wrote:
> On Jan 15, 12:06 pm, alan <mone... RemoveThis @aol.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Ive only been playing live poker for a little more than two years, but
> > I can't help but think that "skill" is overrated and this is primarily
> > a game of luck.
>
> > skill?  yeah, when there are found clubs on the board and your pocket
> > aces are both red, and there are three other players in the hand...
> > skill tells you not to bet.  put it another way, when you have AA
> > (both red) you want to make a huge bet so that you aren't facing a
> > showdown with four clubs on the board.  okay, I concede that is the
> > "skill" part of the game.
>
> > now the luck...  gosh, did I see LUCK rule the day (or the night) last
> > night in a $100 live game at Hollywood Park.  (blinds are $3 and $2)
>
> > In my biggest win of the night (a pot worth more than $400) I have JJ
> > under the gun.  I raise the BB to $15 and I get four callers.  So
> > there is now $75+ in the pot.
>
> > The flop comes 5-5-J. (I flop a full house)
>
> > I am first to act and bet $50 (less than the pot).
> > Player to my immediate left raises to $100.
> > Two other players fold.  the last of the four callers goes all in for
> > his remaining $55 or so.
>
> > Actionn comes back to me and I reraise to $200.
> > Player to my left goes all in.
> > Action back to me and Im all in.
>
> > The turn and the river are both blanks for we three players.
>
> > End result--  I win with JJJ55.
> > The player to my immediate left had KK.
> > The third player had A-5.
>
> > The skill factor?  Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> > might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> > I might have.
>
> > The luck factor?  How lucky I was to flop a full house with JJ when
> > another player had KK and didn't hit???  Amazing.
>
> Poker is a game of skill, patience, and chance: a game of waiting for
> the opportunity to have the odds in your favor, but it takes skill and
> patience to get you such a  "lucky" opportunity like the one you just
> described. Other players' mistakes are the main source of your
> profits. The guy with KK, with all that action, made the mistake of
> putting his money in.  Ace Five would be hard to lay down with that
> flop, the only likely hand that could beat him would bd JJ.
>
> adapted from RUSH by Scott Richard Campbell
>
> Good Luck to you, Sir- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

see www.BornToRush.com
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated 

On Jan 15, 1:14�pm, "WuzYoungOnceToo" <WuzYoungOnce....RemoveThis@yahoo.com>
wrote:
> On Jan 15 2008 2:06 PM, alan wrote:
>
>
>
> > The skill factor? �Had the player with KK made a big raise pre flop I
> > might have folded... well, I probably wouldn't have, but theoretically
> > I might have.
>
> I think we've found your biggest problem. �You think poker is about
> theoretical possibilities, rather than probabilities.
>
> ------�
> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? -www.recgroups.com

Wuz, please explain. This is "foreign" to me. thanks.
 >> Stay informed about: skill is overrated