skill is overrated

On Jan 17, 2:17�am, Pepe Papon
<hitmeister.at.mindpring.dot.com.invalid> wrote:
> On Tue, 15 Jan 2008 13:01:21 -0800 (PST), alan <mone....DeleteThis@aol.com>
> wrote:
>
> >Ian: �Yes, I understand what you are talking about. �but I think in
> >this case, the player with KK was licking his chops thinking he was
> >going to win a lot of money... afterall he had KK.
>
> >when I bet post flop he probably thought I had AJ or J-T. �Im sure he
> >ruled out JJ. �I also think he ruled out that I held a 5. �Would a
> >player raise the $3 BB to $15 holding a 5, even A-5?? �Very doubtful.
> >Im sure he eliminated the idea that I was holding 55.
>
> That shows a lack of skill on his part.

Pepe, a dose of reality please. When I said the player with KK
thought I had AJ or J-T you said "that shows a lack of skill on his
part."

Please, how can you call that "a lack of skill." Maybe its a lack of
telepathy, or a lack of xray vision... but how can it be "a lack of
skill??"

we've all had days when we got "a feeling" to play Jack-Ten or 9-ten
suited and flop came perfectly for us. was that skill? was that
telepathy? was that a phone call from heaven?

now... if you have the nut flush on the river and you have one
opponent, betting a certain amount to get one more call from that
other player into a big pot can be a "skill."

but saying to yourself "this guy is holding JJ and not AJ" can only be
a lucky guess.

However, I will concede that you can determine from someone's betting
what they MIGHT be holding. I will give you an example.

A couple of months ago I was in a tourment in which a solid player
made a strong pre flop bet which told me he either had AK or KK.
Based on previous betting from him, I went with the KK guess. I held
AQ and had a deep stack and in good position, so I called the pre flop
bet. The flop came A-K-K. Yep, I said to myself, this guy just
flopped quads. I was right.

I didnt have telepathic ability. I made a GOOD GUESS based on his
previous betting. Are you going to say that was skill? Okay, it was
skill, with a lot of luck thrown in.

thanks for the comments...

On Thu, 17 Jan 2008 10:21:57 -0800 (PST), alan <moneyla.TakeThisOut@aol.com>
wrote:

>On Jan 17, 2:17?am, Pepe Papon
><hitmeister.at.mindpring.dot.com.invalid> wrote:
>> On Tue, 15 Jan 2008 13:01:21 -0800 (PST), alan <mone....TakeThisOut@aol.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> >Ian: ?Yes, I understand what you are talking about. ?but I think in
>> >this case, the player with KK was licking his chops thinking he was
>> >going to win a lot of money... afterall he had KK.
>>
>> >when I bet post flop he probably thought I had AJ or J-T. ?Im sure he
>> >ruled out JJ. ?I also think he ruled out that I held a 5. ?Would a
>> >player raise the $3 BB to $15 holding a 5, even A-5?? ?Very doubtful.
>> >Im sure he eliminated the idea that I was holding 55.
>>
>> That shows a lack of skill on his part.
>
>Pepe, a dose of reality please. When I said the player with KK
>thought I had AJ or J-T you said "that shows a lack of skill on his
>part."
>
>Please, how can you call that "a lack of skill." Maybe its a lack of
>telepathy, or a lack of xray vision... but how can it be "a lack of
>skill??"

Because a skilled player knows that an overpair is not the nuts. He
could very well have guessed you had AJ. But there was a bet and a
raise before he acted. This means that, with 4 players in the pot,
the first one to act was representing strength, and knowing that there
were still three more players to act, the next guy said, "I understand
you have a strong hand, but I think my hand is stronger still."

With a board of J-5-5, what could the second guy be holding? Is
there a chance that one of them has a set or A-5? What about AA?
And don't forget, there's still one more player yet to act. Does KK
really seem like a hand worth going broke on given this action?

That's not even taking into account the guy's poor preflop play.

>we've all had days when we got "a feeling" to play Jack-Ten or 9-ten
>suited and flop came perfectly for us. was that skill? was that
>telepathy? was that a phone call from heaven?
>
>now... if you have the nut flush on the river and you have one
>opponent, betting a certain amount to get one more call from that
>other player into a big pot can be a "skill."
>
>but saying to yourself "this guy is holding JJ and not AJ" can only be
>a lucky guess.
>
>However, I will concede that you can determine from someone's betting
>what they MIGHT be holding. I will give you an example.
>
>A couple of months ago I was in a tourment in which a solid player
>made a strong pre flop bet which told me he either had AK or KK.
>Based on previous betting from him, I went with the KK guess. I held
>AQ and had a deep stack and in good position, so I called the pre flop
>bet. The flop came A-K-K. Yep, I said to myself, this guy just
>flopped quads. I was right.
>
>I didnt have telepathic ability. I made a GOOD GUESS based on his
>previous betting. Are you going to say that was skill? Okay, it was
>skill, with a lot of luck thrown in.
>
>thanks for the comments...

Of course, any single hand can be decided by luck. But you seem set
in your belief that poker is strictly a game of luck. That's just
nonsense.